With the Russian government’s announcement on March 14 to temporarily suspend exports of wheat, rye, barley and maize abroad, a number of importing African countries are experiencing rising prices. The Russian government’s move was aimed at avoiding domestic (internal) shortages as Western and European sanctions are widened against Russia for its special military operation which began on February 24.

As the United States and the European Union (EU) increase sanctions against Russia over a special military operation, demilitarization and denazification in Ukraine, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed an order barring the export of white and raw sugar until August 31, and banning exports of wheat, rye, barley and corn to neighboring states of the Eurasian Economic Union until June 30. The measures were adopted “to protect the domestic food market from external constraints,” the government statement said.

Many outside countries would be affected by the export suspensions, but would continue to provide special export licenses to traders within their current quota. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter with Egypt and Turkey among the main buyers. It is mainly in competition with the European Union and Ukraine. European wheat prices rose after the Interfax news agency reported on Russia’s bank on grain exports. He didn’t initially mention the ban’s exclusions.

With the Russian government having imposed restrictions on exports, a number of African countries risk a possible shortage of wheat and fertilizer due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. For example, the Mozambican government has warned that the country could experience a shortage of wheat and fertilizers as a direct result of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, one of the main producers of these materials.

In an interview with Dr. Chtatou Mohamed, Senior Professor of Middle East Politics at the International University of Rabat (IUR) and Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco, explains that the outlook for African countries is bleak at the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. The halt in grain exports, including wheat, and other agricultural inputs, will hit most of them hard, already facing a structural food crisis (climate disruption, conflicts) or greatly weakened by rising prices and stock market speculation on essential products.

This is a concern for the African continent, a net importer of wheat and sunflower oil. In addition, drought is causing concern in some parts of the continent. The disruption in commodity shipments would only add to the general concern about food price inflation in a region that imports wheat.

Citing statistical figures, Professor Shtatou says that Moscow and kyiv account for 34% of trade in wheat, a commodity which has increased by 70% since the beginning of the year. The countries around the Mediterranean are suffering enormously. For Egypt, this represents 80% of imports. It is the first importer of wheat in the world (12 million tons). Agricultural exchanges between the countries of the continent and Russia and Ukraine are significant

He finally concluded that Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global commodity market. Russia supplies around 10% of the world’s wheat, while Ukraine produces 4%. Collectively, this represents almost all of the European Union’s wheat production. This grain is destined for domestic consumption and export markets. Together, these two countries account for a quarter of world wheat exports; in 2020, they amounted to 18% for Russia and 8% for Ukraine.

According to the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Celso Correia, this could lead to higher prices for these products and their derivatives. He was speaking at the official launch of the rice harvest campaign in Regadio do Baixo Limpopo, Gaza province. Minister Correia took the opportunity to reiterate that the country hopes, by 2030, to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, while reducing cereal imports as much as possible.

Writing for The Conversation, Wandile Sihlobo, a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University, says wheat and other grains are back at the heart of geopolitics after Ukraine invaded Ukraine. Russia. Both countries play a major role in the global agricultural market. It is very important for African leaders to pay attention to the current situation and related trends.

Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer exporter by value, followed by China, Canada, the United States, Morocco and Belarus. These fertilizer blends include minerals or chemicals ranging from nitrogen to phosphorus and potassium. Fertilizers are an important part of the growth of agricultural products and crops around the world, and a substantial part of input costs. In South Africa, fertilizers represent about 35% of the input costs of cereal producers in South Africa.

Popular Russian media, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, reported on March 10 that the global food crisis that began during the pandemic is worsened by the suspension of wheat and sunflower oil exports from Russia and Ukraine. Although this problem does not significantly affect Russia, the European Union is already concerned about the lack of products.

Signs of a food crisis were already evident before the special military operation in Ukraine, says Evgenia Serova, director of agricultural policy at the Higher School of Economics. The price hike was triggered not only by the pandemic, but also by the EU and US shift to biofuels, which began to drain the volume of crops used as food, the expert said.

In addition to the logistical problems, due to the aggravated geopolitical situation, the world market could be negatively impacted by the suspension of Russian fertilizer exports. Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade recommended the move amid sabotage of carriers refusing to transport Russian products. Russia ranks among the world’s top three exporters of mineral fertilizers. Freezing such exports would only trigger higher prices, the expert noted, and further predicted that “for at least the next two years we will have to live in conditions of runaway food inflation.” .

In previous years, Russia has increased its exports with a view to generating revenue and gaining a foothold in foreign markets. Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Research Dmitry Rylko considers the export initiative promising, although Russian products are not very popular abroad. He believes that promoting exports will not only help raise awareness of traded products in international markets, but also improve their quality. “The problem is to promote products from the high-end segment, which will also promote international tourism,” Rylko said.

There is still a lot that is not known about the geopolitical challenges ahead of us. But for African countries, there is cause for concern given their reliance on grain imports. In the short term, countries will likely see the impact through a spike in prices, rather than an actual shortage of commodities.

According to research reports, African countries imported agricultural products worth US$4 billion from Russia in 2020. About 90% of these products were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. The main importing countries were Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of imports, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Similarly, Ukraine exported $2.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the African continent in 2020. About 48% of these exports were wheat, 31% corn, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley and soy.

Long before the February 24 crisis, Russia indicated strong preparation and interest in expanding cooperation in trade and economic sectors in Africa. It’s hard to predict now. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered to restrict or ban the import and export of certain products and raw materials from Russia in 2022, in accordance with the decree on special foreign economic measures aimed at ensuring the security of Russia.

“Ensure the implementation of the following special economic measures until December 31, 2022: ban on export and import of products and/or raw materials in accordance with lists to be defined by the Government of the Russian Federation”, indicates the document, adding that a separate document listing will define the goods whose export and import will be restricted. The decree becomes necessary to ensure the security of Russia and the uninterrupted functioning of agriculture and industry.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, preparations for the Russia-Africa summit are in an active phase. The dates for the summit have not yet been set. The first Russia-Africa Summit took place in October 2019, and it was co-chaired by Russian and Egyptian Presidents Vladimir Putin and Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. The next summit is scheduled for fall 2022.

Related

Oil and gas prices jumped after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

The US has banned oil and gas imports and the UK is phasing out oil imports as part of a series of Western sanctions aimed at cutting Russia off from the world’s financial arteries. The European Union, meanwhile, said it would end its dependence on Russian gas.

In 2020, the world consumed 3,822.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. The United States alone accounted for more than 20% (832 bcm) of the annual global gas consumption, followed by Russia (411.4 bcm) and China (330.6 bcm).

Russia has the largest natural gas reserves, followed by Iran and Qatar. Together, the three countries accounted for half of the world’s natural gas reserves in 2020.

Russia has proven reserves of about 48.938 billion m3, Iran 34.077 billion m3 and Qatar 23.831 billion m3.

Which countries export the most natural gas?

Unlike the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), there is no multinational organization of major gas exporters that adjusts supply to balance the market.

However, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) exists as an 11-member organization comprising Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela.

Angola, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Malaysia, Mozambique, Norway, Peru and the United Arab Emirates have the status of observer members. The consortium represents 71% of the world’s proven natural gas reserves.

Over 80% of global gas exports are linked to 10 major exporters. In 2020, the 10 largest gas exporters in the world were Russia (199,928 mcm), the United States (149,538 mcm), Qatar (143,700 mcm), Norway (112,951 mcm), Australia (102,562 mcm), Canada (70,932 mcm), Germany (50,092 mcm), Netherlands (39,976 mcm), Algeria (34,459 mcm) and Nigeria (35,586 mcm).

Which countries are most dependent on Russian natural gas?

In 2019, the world’s top exporters of natural gas were Australia ($34 billion), Qatar ($27.5 billion), Russia ($24.5 billion), Norway ($21 billion ) and the United States ($16 billion).

Italy bought around a quarter (24%) of Russia’s total natural gas exports, worth $5.8 billion. This represented only 39% of the country’s natural gas imports.

At least 37 countries imported Russian gas in 2019. The countries most dependent on Russian gas are: Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway and Serbia – each importing around 99% of their gas from Russia.

The chart below shows what share of each country’s total natural gas imports comes from Russia.

How is gas used and produced?

Natural gas is used in transport, to generate electricity and heat homes, as well as in the industrial sector to produce raw materials such as glass, plastics and paint, among others.

Odorless and colorless, natural gas is formed over millions of years from decomposed organisms, silt and sand, which are then exposed to heat and pressure below the Earth’s surface.

Methane is the largest component of natural gas, which also contains smaller amounts of natural gas liquids and gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor.

The gas is extracted by drilling vertically or horizontally into the ground, which allows the gas to rise through wells to the surface. From the wells, the natural gas is then sent to processing plants where water vapor and non-hydrocarbon compounds are removed and NGLs (liquid natural gas) are separated from the wet gas. It is then distributed to consumers through a network of pipes.

European dependence on Russian gas

Russia has the second largest gas infrastructure in the world after the United States with a total length of almost 100,000 km (62,137 miles).

In 2021, European gas imports from Russia amounted to more than 380 million cubic meters (mcm) per day by pipeline, totaling around 140 billion m3 for the year, according to the IEA. An additional 15 bcm were delivered in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Russia accounted for around 45% of EU gas imports and 40% of its total gas consumption.

The EU has announced a strategy to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022. The REPowerEU plan aims to find alternative gas supplies and greener energy sources.

Russia’s footprint in the global oil and gas market is significant, and with tough sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, the effects are felt globally. Gas prices in Europe and the UK rose significantly in March after the invasion, but have since consolidated as Russia and Ukraine engage in peace talks.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said having a face-to-face discussion with Zelensky was “something really special”.

“The main objective of our visit and the main message of our mission is to tell our Ukrainian friends that they are not alone, that Europe is on your side,” Fiala said.

Fiala said he wanted to assure Ukrainians that we are “hosting your wives and children” and providing them with “shelter” in the Czech Republic.

The Czech Republic has now taken in 250,000 refugees, according to the prime minister, who said they “will continue to provide more help and support”.

Zelensky thanked EU leaders for their “wonderful support” as “so many other ambassadors left Ukraine because of the full-scale Russian invasion”.

“The most important thing is that we really trust these leaders,” Zelensky said. “When we talk about security guarantees, our future in the European Union, or when we talk about sanctions policy, we are 100% certain that whatever we discuss, whatever we say, will lead to a positive result for our country.”

He continued that with “friends like that”, Ukraine “can win”.

Poland’s Morawiecki, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša and Czech Fiala left by train before 9 a.m. local time, said the head of the Polish Prime Minister’s Chancellery, Michal Dworczyk. The train departed from Poland, a Czech government press officer told CNN on Tuesday.

The purpose of the visit is “to confirm the unequivocal support of the entire European Union for Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence and to present a broad spectrum of support for the Ukrainian state and society”, said a government spokesman.

They said the trip to Kyiv had been organized in agreement with European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and added that the international community would be informed of the delegation’s visit by the through international organizations, including the United Nations.

“In these defining times for the world, it is our duty to be where history is made, because it is not about us, but about the future of our children who deserve to live in a world freed from tyranny,” Morawiecki said in a Facebook post on Tuesday.

Morawiecki said he and the other leaders were traveling to Kyiv to “show Ukrainians our solidarity” and denounced “Putin’s criminal aggression against Ukraine”.

European values

More than 3 million people have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion began on February 24, the International Organization for Migration announced on Tuesday.

Poland has been the largest host country for Ukrainian refugees, with more than 1.8 million people entering the country on Tuesday, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Prime Minister Fiala said last month that his country was sending “machine guns, submachine guns, sniper rifles and pistols and their corresponding ammunition worth CZK 188 million”, to support the Ukrainian government in its fight against Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5 provision, calling it “weak”, during a speech on Tuesday. His comments came as key cities in Ukraine, including around Kyiv and Mariupol, reported extensive damage and dire situations.

Here is an overview of the main developments that took place today:

On the ground: Deaths were reported after shelling hit buildings in residential areas of kyiv on Tuesday, Ukrainian authorities say and new satellite images show widespread destruction across Ukraine, including damaged homes in a village near from Kyiv.

In the besieged city of Mariupol, smoking houses could be seen, where more than 2,500 civilians died, Ukrainian officials estimate.

Captivity situation in Mariupol: A Ukrainian official accused Russian troops of holding people captive in a hospital in Mariupol on Tuesday.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk regional administration, said doctors and patients were being held against their will at the Mariupol Regional Intensive Care Hospital, also known as Hospital No.

Sergei Orlov, deputy mayor of Mariupol, said Russian forces were ‘destroying’ the beleaguered Ukrainian city and that patients in a hospital were used as captives.

“There are a lot of fights on our streets, and the situation yesterday was terrible,” he told CNN’s Bianna Golodryga.

Evacuation corridors: US Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said there were reports of cars leaving Mariupol, noting that if this was in fact the start of an evacuation corridor, such a development would be a “step forward”.

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine: Talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have ended for the day and will resume on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podoliak. He noted that the negotiation process has been “very difficult and viscous”. “There are fundamental contradictions. But there is certainly room for compromise,” he said in a tweet.

The Prime Ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic arrive in Ukraine: The Polish, Slovenian and Czech Prime Ministers arrived in kyiv on Tuesday by train to meet Zelensky and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

The prime ministers arrived in the city on behalf of the EU council, Shmyal said on Twitterpraising the “courage of true friends”.

Zelensky will address the US Congress on Wednesday: The President of Ukraine is preparing to deliver a virtual speech to the US Congress tomorrow. Zelensky’s speech comes as Russia continues its unprovoked and deadly invasion of the country and Ukraine continues to press the United States for more aid as it retaliates.

US President Joe Biden will deliver his own speech on Wednesday after signing into law a massive aid package for Ukraine: Biden plans to detail U.S. aid to Ukraine in a speech on Wednesday, hours after Ukraine’s president is expected to make new requests for aid in a speech to Congress, the White House said.

A massive spending bill was signed into law by Biden on Tuesday that will provide a one-time injection of $13.6 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as it fights back against invading Russia.

Biden is also expected to travel to Europe next week for a special NATO meeting and show US support for Ukraine, the White House has confirmed. Biden will join NATO world leaders in person in Brussels, Belgium on Thursday, March 24.

Here is an overview of Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine:

Hello and welcome to our ongoing coverage of the global economy, financial markets, eurozone and business.

The UK economy returned to growth as the economic damage caused by the Omicron variant receded.

UK GDP rose 0.8% in January, faster than economists expected, after contracting 0.2% in December when ‘plan B’ restrictions were introduced after the emergence of the fast-spreading variant of Covid-19.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that every sector grew in January, with services up 0.8%, production up 0.7% and construction up 1.1%.

Service companies in direct contact with customers have experienced a strong recovery. The food and beverage sector rose 6.8% in January after the festive season was severely disrupted as parties were canceled and more people worked from home in December.

The January rebound means the UK economy was 0.8% above pre-pandemic levels:

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine now threatens the recovery, with the International Monetary Fund likely to lower its global growth forecasts.

Chief Executive Kristalina Georgieva told reporters last night that the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia were pushing the Russian economy into a deep recession.

The crisis is also having global repercussions: it is driving up commodity prices, leading to higher inflation which is hitting real incomes and hurting financial conditions and business confidence.

Georgiava said:

So, to sum up, we have a tragic impact of the war on Ukraine. We have a major contraction in Russia. And we see the likely impact on our Global Economic Outlook. Next month we will present a downward revision of our growth projections.

So we went through a crisis like no other with the pandemic. And we are now in even more shocking territory. The unthinkable has happened: we have a war in Europe.

In January, the IMF predicted the global economy would grow 4.4% this year, down from 5.9% in 2021.

US President Joe Biden expected to increase economic pressure on Vladimir Putin later in the day calling for an end to normal trade relations with Russia, according to reports.

The move, reported by Reuters and Bloomberg citing unnamed Biden administration sources, would pave the way for higher tariffs on Russian imports and come on top of widespread sanctions and a decision this week to ban oil imports from Russia by the United States and the United Kingdom.

Agenda

• 7am GMT: UK GDP and trade report for January
• Noon GMT: Brazil inflation rate for February
• 15:00 GMT: University of Michigan survey of US consumer sentiment for March

The government will seek “flexibilities” in EU law that will allow VAT to be further reduced on fuel prices without financial penalties being imposed on the state, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said.

Speaking as he arrived for a special summit of EU leaders at the Palace of Versailles in France, Mr Martin said the war in Ukraine had had a dramatic impact on energy prices and supply.

The Taoiseach also said it was possible that Irish Defense Force personnel could be deployed at some point around the EU-Ukraine border, on a peacekeeping or enforcement mission. Peace.

The Versailles meeting is hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and discusses proposals to strengthen the EU’s energy independence as well as its defense capability.

Mr Martin said Ireland had benefited from historic derogations from VAT on fuel prices which allowed it to charge lower rates. However, in a situation where a State varies its rate, it risks losing the exemptions.

The government has already reduced excise duties on petrol by 20 cents per liter and on diesel by 15 cents per liter in response to dramatic increases in fuel prices since the outbreak of the war.

Mr Martin told reporters as he entered the palace grounds that if Ireland reduced VAT further it would lose the waiver and would have to accept a higher rate in future once the situation returned to normal normal.

He said the government was now looking for “flexibilities around this”. Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe was also advocating for this with the European Commission, he added.

The Taoiseach said three key points would be discussed by the 27 EU leaders. “(We will discuss) defense and security investments across Europe, with many member states reconsidering (their positions),” he said.

“The Ukrainian crisis has really changed the world order. Economic resilience and robustness will be a key element of tomorrow’s discussions in terms of key areas where Europe needs to be more resilient.

“New Initiatives”

“We have seen this in healthcare in the context of Covid-19. There are new initiatives in semiconductors, for example, to ensure that Europe is not too vulnerable, in terms of low production levels.

He said the third problem was energy dependency.

“There is a statement that we have been working on, around reducing dependence on Russian gas and oil over time. Obviously, some states are much more dependent on the import of (Russian) gas and oil. I think more strategically, we’ll see a much bigger focus in the medium term, on more renewables, effectively reducing dependencies.

He said the crisis created by the war was a global crisis that had a huge impact on energy prices. Regarding the national impact, he said the government had realized the significant impact of the dramatic escalation in oil and gas prices on the Irish economy.

Asked about the alleged price-fixing by some fuel suppliers in Ireland, he repeated his comments that it was “morally wrong in the context of barbaric warfare”. He said the Competition Authority’s role would be to ensure that there was no price-fixing or that there were no cartels operating.

Asked about the new sanctions imposed by the EU, Mr Martin said this would be done in collaboration with the EU, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.

“My rule of thumb is that we should have unity of purpose on this and we should move forward in unison.

“Because it will have the greatest impact in terms of pressure on Russia.”

He said it would be discussed at the meeting, but since it was not a formal council, he did not think a formal decision would be made at Versailles.

atrocities

Mr Martin said there was huge anger in Ireland over the atrocities in Ukraine. “We pay tribute to the journalists around the world who bring us these photographs and risk their lives to go behind the scenes or to show the war to the people. Because it creates a huge momentum against the Russian Federation and its war against Ukraine. In my view, that in itself will create pressure.

He also praised Mr. Macron for keeping communication channels open with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to end the war.

Mr Martin said that while Ireland was militarily neutral, it did not prevent other member states from helping countries defend their citizens from attack.

Asked about the circumstances under which Irish Defense Force personnel could travel to Ukraine’s borders to help on a humanitarian basis, he said it was “always possible”.

“We are ready to help neighboring countries in terms of humanitarian crisis in terms of logistics along the border,” he said.

Mr Macron said before the meeting that the war had completely changed the architecture of Europe.

“Our democracy and our values ​​have been threatened. We have to accept that sometimes we have to pay the price,” Macron said as he entered the meeting.

“I will spare no effort to achieve this ceasefire,” he said.

The boss of Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest automaker, has warned that a protracted war in Ukraine is likely to be “much worse” for the region’s economy than the coronavirus pandemic.

Disrupting global supply chains “could lead to huge price hikes, energy shortages and inflation,” Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German automaker, told the Financial Times. “It could be very risky for the European and German economies.”

The warning from one of the continent’s best-known business leaders comes as Western governments step up economic efforts to punish Russia, a key global supplier of raw materials ranging from gas to palladium, for its invasion of the continent. ‘Ukraine.

The sanctions imposed so far – and the prospect that the Kremlin could retaliate by cutting off gas supplies to Europe – have thrown energy markets into turmoil.

“The threat of this war for Germany and Europe is huge,” Diess said, noting that higher inflation could weigh heavily on consumers.

Eurozone inflation hit a new high of 5.8% in February and is expected to reach 7% this year. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, facing the threat of both higher prices and slowing economic growth.

Europe’s greater reliance on Russia for its energy needs has already led to a split over energy sanctions, with Germany opting not to follow the United States this week in imposing a full embargo on oil and gas. Russia supplies 45% of Europe’s gas imports that heat homes and help fuel the continent’s manufacturing sector.

“For a society like Germany, which depends on Russian energy, on raw materials. . . if you imagine a scenario in which we cut trade relations with Russia, which we would probably have to do if this conflict [does not cease]you could no longer buy energy and that would lead to a situation that could have a huge impact on Europe and Germany,” Diess said.

The VW boss stressed that he was in favor of “maximum sanctions”, but once these are in place “we have to go back to negotiations, to dialogue, because what we don’t want is a war without end in Ukraine”.

VW, which has 500,000 employees in Europe, announced last week the halt of vehicle production in Russia “until further notice”, idling its manufacturing sites in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod. Rival German groups BMW and Mercedes have also suspended Russian production or sales.

Echoing the disruption to supply chains triggered at the start of the pandemic in 2020, VW was forced to temporarily halt production at factories in Germany due to parts shortages. He struggled to secure electrical wires which are usually produced by companies based in Ukraine.

Diess warned that VW and the wider European economy could soon face far bigger problems than supply bottlenecks. “We managed semiconductors, Covid. . . fine,” he said, referring to the chip shortage that has plagued automakers for more than a year.

Although VW has 7,000 employees in Russia, the market is not particularly important to its overall business. VW and its other brands Skoda, Audi and Porsche sold just over 204,000 cars in Russia last year, out of 9 million worldwide.

It has been nearly two weeks since Russia launched its assault on Ukraine, killing hundreds and displacing more than 2 million.

Besides generating a humanitarian crisis and sending shockwaves around the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine have also put the countries’ foreign policies in the spotlight.

While some countries, like Germany, have completely reoriented their defense and energy policies to rebuke Russia and secure European borders, others like India continue to maintain a relatively restrictive stance towards the old friend of Russia.

But after the Russian invasion hit India closer to home, killing an Indian student in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and hundreds of Indian students still awaiting evacuation, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under pressure to condemn Russia’s actions.

Last week, P Chidambaram, an Indian parliamentarian from the opposition Congress party, tweeted: “The Indian government should stop its verbal balancing act and sternly demand that Russia immediately stop shelling key cities in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Modi held talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and called for an immediate end to the violence.

Yet on the world stage, India has so far refrained five times from condemning Russia’s actions at the United Nations and has only reiterated a “commitment to the principles of the United Nations Charter , international law and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all States”. .

EU-India relations in trouble?

India’s balancing act of placating both Russia and the West in the Ukraine crisis caught the European Union off guard.

According to Indian media last week, the EU envoys together with Ukraine’s envoy to New Delhi met with senior Indian Foreign Ministry officials ahead of a historic vote at the UN General Assembly and urged India to take a tougher stance on the conflict.

French President Emmanuel Macron also held consultations with Modi on the matter. France currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU and a proactive Macron has held regular talks with EU leaders and world leaders to defuse the crisis.

After Macron’s call with Modi, a statement issued by the French Embassy in India said the two leaders agreed to “guarantee unhindered humanitarian access” to Ukraine and coordinate the resolution of the crisis in the country. UN Security Council.

In recent years, India has strengthened its ties with the EU to ward off Chinese threats. At the recent Indo-Pacific Forum, EU Foreign Ministers and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar agreed to deepen security relations by coordinating maritime presence in the Indian Ocean and enhancing cybersecurity .

Garima Mohan, a fellow in the Asia program of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said that while Europe-India relations have come a long way in recent years, India may have to reassess its position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“European officials working with India are disappointed but certainly understand its position. The official line is that everything is business as usual with India. But for European politicians and audiences unfamiliar with Indian foreign policy, it will be a tough sell,” she told Al Jazeera.

“It is important to note that India’s position is changing and as the crisis gathers momentum, India will need to reassess its response,” she said.

Anil Trigunayat, India’s former ambassador to EU member Malta, shared a similar view.

“The EU understands India’s position and its strategic autonomy. India’s position in the Indo-Pacific is critical,” he told Al Jazeera.

“However, the Sino-Russian proximity may have certain implications for India.”

“Special relationship with Russia”

Moscow appreciated New Delhi’s cautious stance on the Ukraine crisis, with India not on a list of ‘hostile countries’ compiled by the Kremlin following a series of sanctions imposed by the EU, US and the UK.

However, India’s position towards Russia on the war in Ukraine is not new. Even in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, India maintained its neutrality at the UN.

Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, says India’s position is a consequence of its special relationship with Russia.

“New Delhi has long viewed Moscow as its most reliable and trustworthy partner, a perception shaped by decades of friendship, dating back to the early years of the Cold War,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Indian leaders often speak of Russia as the closest and most reliable friend of India, a country that has never had a crisis with India. And they see it as a country ever ready to help India on the world stage, including at the UN, where Russia’s voting habits on issues like Kashmir have backed India.

Russia, India’s main strategic partner, exported weapons worth $6.6 billion between 2016 and 2020 to the South Asian nation. However, India-Russia bilateral trade at $8.1 billion between April 2020 and March 2021 is not as high as India-EU trade, which stood at €62.8 billion (€68.5 billion) over the same period.

According to Kugelman, India’s Cold War nostalgia for Russia continues to weigh on their relationship. “It comes down to a simple math: Russia supports us and we will support it as well,” he said.

Vivek Mishra, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, says India’s diplomatic stance on Ukraine could be beneficial and there has been a ‘gradual maturity’ in strategic autonomy from India.

“India’s foreign policy has moved from non-alignment to embracing strategic autonomy in defense and security policies. This crisis has shown exactly that with India discussing the crisis with the EU and the US, refraining from taking a position on the conflict at the UN and speaking to both Russia and Ukraine. Mishra told Al Jazeera.

The Chinese Question

The question is: if China intervenes in the Ukraine crisis, will India support the West?

So far, China, like its rival India, has also played a balancing act between Russia and the West.

In a statement released last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told senior European officials that while Beijing respects a country’s sovereignty, including that of Ukraine, Russia’s security demands must also be handled properly.

However, China’s growing proximity to Russia in recent years is something India is watching closely, according to ORF’s Mishra.

“Putin going to the Beijing Olympics and meeting China’s Xi Jinping made India suspicious of Sino-Russian relations,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Even if China weighs more than it already has on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, India would continue to maintain its neutral position. China is an imminent threat to India, so India will not want pleasing Russia in a way that would threaten its national interests,” he added.

Kugelman thinks that if anything were to make India change its position, it would be the course of events, not the decisions of other countries.

“EU pressure is unlikely to influence India’s foreign policy. The essence of India’s cherished principle of strategic autonomy is that it will not bow to great power pressure to take a particular position or to align itself with a particular side,” he said. at Al Jazeera.

Kugelman said India makes foreign policy decisions “on its own terms” and there is little other countries, including its closest partners, can do to change that.

“But if Putin expands his invasion into NATO territory, all bets would be off and by then India would probably have no choice but to come out and condemn what would effectively be a new world war.”